CLIMATE CHANGE
FORMERLY GLOBAL WARMING
And prior to that... GLOBAL COOLING

Sunset at Lucky Hit Snow at Lucky Hit

I remember in 1973 the media informed us that scientists confirmed all known and projected oil and gas reserves worldwide would last only 10 years... or if we were particularly careful we might make it 15 years. This "scientific fact" was repeated constantly on the radio, on TV, and in newspapers and magazines. They informed us that after that time there would be no oil and gas left in the entire world. Very alarming stuff! In response, governments reduced the speed limits to "help" (force) us to conserve. Prices sky rocketed. We were told that all leading scientists were in agreement on this "fact." It's easy to see in 2012 that they got it wrong!

Then, as early as 1975, we were warned about imminent global cooling (see The "Cooling World," Newsweek, April 28, 1975). In the 1980's, the media assured us that "leading scientists" were all in agreement that manufacturing produced gasses that were causing global cooling. (Naturally, WE were causing the cooling through manufacturing. No one seemed to consider natural fluctuation.) The media warned us that a return to the ice ages was imminent. Movies were made exploring global cooling and how it would affect us.

For a while I didn't hear much about pollution and its effect on global temperature. Time passed and again I started hearing about carbon dioxide causing the climate to change. But this time we were told that the carbon dioxide was causing global warming. The media assured us that "leading scientists" were in agreement - global warming was the latest threat to the world.

With the media's ignorance regarding world-wide oil reserves and their switch from global cooling to global warming, I decided to look into global temperature change for myself!

First I looked over graphs depicting global temperatures. Some graphs covered only the last thousand years. Others covered 100's of millions of years. The first thing I realized is that we are currently in one of the earth's major ice ages which began almost two million years ago. Prior to this ice age, the average global temperature was about 7 degrees Celsius warmer than it currently is today.

We live in what is called the Holocene interglacial, which is the seventh interglacial in our current ice age, the Quaternary. We live in Earth’s fourth or fifth ice age (there is some disagreement which). The current ice age is still relatively young – only about 2.58 million years old. The preceding ice ages differ in length between 30 million and 300 million years. The Holocene is, by some, considered the seventh interglacial of this current ice age. However, I've seen as many as twenty interglacials listed for this ice age. So it can be said that we are living in the seventh interglacial of the fourth ice age. The Holocene interglacial is only a tiny sliver of time compared to the 4.5 billion years of Earth’s existence. Without the warm climate of our Holocene interglacial there would be no history of human civilization to look back upon.
Four Glaciations over the preceding billion years

Surface temperature has not consistently risen at the rate predicted by simple greenhouse warming. While global temperatures have been relatively high over the past fifteen years, they have also been relatively stable. In addition, prior to assigning any temperature changes to man made causes, one must first subtract the changes produced by natural global temperature change mechanisms.

"Ice age" can mean two different things. It can refer to the four prolonged periods of generalized global cooling (as seen in the graph above) or perhaps more commonly, within an ice age it can refer to glaciations between the short warming periods called interglacials. This understanding helped me realize that the earlier "ice age" that "ended" about 10 thousand years ago was really part of a cycle of global cooling and warming within our current two million year ice age. While the earth warms withing the interglacials, the earth's temperature is always well below the "normal" temperature outside the ice ages. Therefore, even the hottest interglacial temperature is well below the earth's average non-ice age temperature.

During the present ice age, glaciers have advanced and retreated between 7 to 20 times, (depending on how the estimation was performed) often blanketing North America with ice. Our climate today is actually a warm interval between these many periods of glaciation. The most recent period of glaciation, which many people think of as the "Ice Age", was at its height approximately 20,000 years ago.

Therefore, we are in one of the more than 20 warming cycles within the current two million year ice age. The warming cycles are called interglacials (between the glaciers). The scary thing to me is that we are nearing the the highest temperatures seen in the earlier interglacials within this two million year ice age. That means that we are soon (soon in geological time) due for a cool down to return the temperature to ice age norms, which is about four to five degrees Celcius cooler than our current temperature. (My guess is that this fact is what got the scientists predicting global cooling in the 1980's.)

As you can see in the following graph, the Eemian interglacial, the interglacial that occurred just before our present interglacial, reached about 2 degrees Celcius warmer than our current temperature. The Eemian interglacial was warmer than our present interglacial without any "man-made global warming." Why is this uncontested fact not mentioned when global warming is being discussed?

Global temperature over the preceding 150000 years

Of couse, we could get even warmer for a while longer before the cool down, or we might be coming out of the ice age altogether. In that case the earth will be getting much much warmer! Sadly, the earth's average temperature has been much much warmer for more than half of its existance so this great increase in temperature is a possibility.

Glaciation in the US The Holocene Interglacial is our most recent period between glaciations. The period of receding glaciation preceding the Holocene Interglacial is the Eemian Interglacial, which began 130 thousand years BP (Before Present). The warmest temperature in the Eemian Interglacial was 1 to 2 degrees Centigrade higher than our current Holocene Interglacial temperature (1 to 2 degrees warmer than now). During the Eemian Stage sea level was about 8 meters (24 feet) higher than today and the water temperature of the North Sea was 2°C higher than at present. The Eemian Interglacial lasted about 16,000 years. We certainly didn't cause the global warming of the Eemian!

The four pictures show the progression of glaciation. At the height of the Eemian there is virtually no glaciation. As the temperature dropped, glaciation increased. During the glaciation period prior to the Eemian the glacier was determined to be 1,000 feet thick and progressed as far south as the Northeastern corner of Kansas!

Warming interglacials have lasted, on average, about ten thousand years before the world's temperature returns to a colder climate. The current interglacial is the holocene interglacial. The holocene interglacial has already lasted about ten thousand years.

Global temperature over the preceding 1000 years Global temperature over the preceding 1000 years

You will note that the earth's present temperature is in the range of earth's temperature during 1000 AD to 1350 AD. I've never heard this fact mentioned in media reports? Until recently, temperature changes clearly had nothing to do with man made factors. Therefore, any valid discussion of man made contributions to temperature change MUST include a discussion of the natural and cyclic factors involved in world wide temperature change and the factors contributing to those natural temperature changes. So far a discussion in these natural factors has been completely absent, making me question the scientific reliability of all of these so called "scientific" global warming facts!

The maximum cold in the preceding glacial period was approximately 23,000 to 15,000 years ago with ice caps approximately one mile thick and the sea level about 350 feet below present levels. There was also a worldwide increase in atmospheric dust.

Recent paleodata have revealed that there were abrupt transitions in climate in which major shifts in some components of the earth's climate are accomplished on time scales of a decade or less! Greenland ice cores suggest changes took place in between five to ten years!

Global temperature over the preceding 18,000 years

You can see in the graph, above, that the temperature 18,000 years ago (at the beginning of the Holocene Interglacial) was about four degrees Centigrade colder than our current average temperature. Note that somewhere between 18,000 and 14,000 years ago the last "ice age" (glaciation) was ending and we were entering our current interglacial period. You can see that, as always, the temperature fluctuates throughout its cycle, both rising and falling!

See the abrupt drop in temperature at about 10,500 Before Present and the abrupt rise in temperature about 10,000 Before Present. The rise was about 2 1/2 degrees Celcius in a very few years and the drop was abrupt and significant. The amount of change in the last 100 years is negligible compared to the natural change seen then!

We can see that the temperature exceeded current levels not only between 750 - 2000 years before present but also 4,000 - 7000 years ago and 8,500 to 9,500 years ago.years! We cannot credit man made global warming for ANY of those time periods in which the earth's temperature exceeded current levels!

Other sources have time frames for the warming and cooling periods in the Holocene that, while similar in overall pattern, vary a bit on the exact dates. The closer to the present we come the greater all sources are in agreement. For example, from the Roman period continuing to the present, climate intervals are stated as residing near the following dates:

The Roman Warming (250 BC—450 AD)
The Dark Ages (535–900 AD)
The Medieval Warming (900–1300 AD)
The Little Ice Age (1280–1850 AD)
The Late 20th Century Warming (1850 AD to the present)

These sources state that during both the Roman Warming and the Medieval Warming, global temperatures were actually higher than current global temperatures. They also note that during both the Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age, global temperatures were lower than they are currently. (I've never seen or heard an advocate of man made global warming discuss these rather dramatic world wide temperature fluctuations and how the contribution of earth's natural temperature fluctuations were removed from the calculation to determine that man is dramatically affecting our current world wide temperature! No assertion that world wide temperature changes are caused by man can be considered valid until the mechanism by which natural fluctuation was removed from the equation has been clearly provided and proven reliable.)

They also note that during the Late 20th Century Warming, the Earth's temperature began to recover (rise) from the long “Little Ice Age.” Of course, this period wasn’t actually an ice age. It was a less warm period during the current interglacial.

Many who support the idea that the earth is warming say this is due to increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. During the last period of glaciation the atmospheric CO2 content was much lower than today, about 190 ppmv. By the beginning of the Holocene, atmospheric CO2 had risen to approximately 250 ppmv. In the last 8,000 years atmospheric CO2 increased to its current 391 ppmv. Although Global temperatures during the Roman Warming were higher than today, the atmospheric CO2 content was lower. This fact alone disproves the claim of man-made global warming advocates who claim that CO2 is the main climate driver.

Global Warming is now called Global Temperature Change, which is a safer designation because global temperature ALWAYS changes. However, I have yet to see a Global Warming prediction (Global Temperature Change prediction) that includes an explanation of how NATURAL GLOBAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS were taken into account AND ELIMINATED WHEN MAKING THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE PREDICTION!

ANY VALID ASSERTIONS REGARDING MAN MADE TEMPERATURE CHANGES MUST INCLUDE THE METHOD USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AND ELIMINATE NATURAL GLOBAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS! ASSERTIONS THAT LACK INFORMATION REGARDING THE METHOD USED TO ELIMINATE NATURAL GLOBAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS ARE NOT VALID AND LACK SCIENTIFIC CREDIBILITY.


WHY IS SO MUCH TIME AND MONEY BEING SPENT TRYING TO PROVE GLOBAL WARMING IS MAN MADE WITHOUT ANYONE ACTUALLY USING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD TO DO SO?